US Senate
September 24, 2004
Bill Shapard

U.S. Senate race, Carson adds to his lead.

OKLAHOMA CITY - Support for U.S. Senate candidate Brad Carson (D) continued to increase this week, while Republican Tom Coburn's support remained steady. Carson's lead is once again outside the margin of error., a public opinion research firm in Oklahoma City, conducted the telephone poll of 553 statewide likely voters for Fox25 in Oklahoma City showing Carson with 44.1%, 37.2% for Coburn and 18.8% undecided. The survey had a margin of error of 4.1%.

Both candidates continue to dominate within their own parties, while Carson also added to his lead among women voters and developed more support from Independent voters.

Coburn's strongest support is among the youngest group of voters, ages 18-34, while Carson's support comes from the more coveted end of the spectrum leading with seniors 65 and over. Baby-boomers, ages 50-64 have the highest numbers of undecided voters, although Carson leads with 9 points.

Coburn leads Carson among cross-party voters by 5%, although political observers have noted that Coburn must do better among Democrats to win in a state still dominated by Democratic registration.

Furthermore, some high-ranking Republicans wonder whether the lottery and tribal gaming issues on the ballot will have the same impact as cock fighting did two years ago. Many believe Governor Brad Henry (D) benefited from the higher turnout of those who came to the polls to vote against the cock-fighting ban. This week's poll shows those supporting Carson also overwhelmingly support the lottery and gaming ballot initiatives.

The Republican National Committee started airing television ads on Coburn's behalf introducing him as a former congressman who kept his promises.

Meanwhile, Carson continued his attack on Coburn, characterizing him as a far-right extremist, and defining himself as someone who will fight for Oklahoma in Washington.

Bill Shapard
About the Author

Bill Shapard

Bill is the founder of and ShapardResearch, a full service market research firm based in Oklahoma City. Bill began his career in polling after working on a major campaign in Oklahoma from 1996 until founding SoonerPoll in 2004.