US Senate
September 14, 2022
Bill Shapard

Mullin Leads by 12 Points in Race to Replace US Senator Jim Inhofe

Oklahoma Congressman Markwayne Mullin leads former Oklahoma Congresswoman Kendra Horn by 12 points in the race to replace US Senator Jim Inhofe, according to the baseline poll.


The poll was commissioned by News9 and Newson6 in Tulsa among 402 likely voters selected at random in the state.

[QUESTION] If the upcoming November election for U.S. Senate was held TODAY and you were in the voting booth right now and had to make a choice, for whom would you vote?

1.  Markwayne Mullin:  51.9%
2.  Kendra Horn:  39.9
3.  Ray Woods:  4.0
4.  Don’t Know/Undecided: 4.3

Among men and women voters, Mullin leads Horn 54.7 to 40.3 percent among men and 49.6 to 39.5 percent among women.

Both candidates are received the vast majority of this own party's voters, with Horn picking up 8.8 percent of Republicans and Mullin getting 3.6 percent of Democrats. ?Horn leads Mullin among Independent voters 59.9 percent to 18.2 percent.

Those who self-identify as moderate favor Horn 64 to 30.3 percent.

Mullin, who received Trump's endorsement in August, is receiving the vast majority of those voters who view Trump favorably, but Mullin is also getting 65.3 percent of those that view Trump 'somewhat unfavorable' as well.

Mullin is beating Horn in every congressional district except for her former 5th congressional district that takes in the OKC metro area, but only by six points (46.3 to 40.7 percent). Mullin, however, is beating Horn in his current 2nd congressional district by nearly 30 points (62 to 32.9 percent).

About the Poll, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters in an exclusive poll for News9 and Newson6 in Tulsa.

The scientific study was conducted from September 2-7, 2022 with 402 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a dual-frame of both landline and SoonerPoll's proprietary online panel. The landline sample was collected using IVR (Interactive Voice Response). The sample was weighted by age, party, gender, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a general election. The weighting was conducted using a 'layered technique.'

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and nearly a third identifying as Moderate. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ±4.89 percent.

A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

Bill Shapard
About the Author

Bill Shapard

Bill is the founder of and ShapardResearch, a full service market research firm based in Oklahoma City. Bill began his career in polling after working on major campaigns for both Republicans and Democrats in Oklahoma from 1996 until founding SoonerPoll in 2004.