US Senate
September 14, 2022
Bill Shapard

Lankford Leads in His Re-Election Efforts By 17 Points

Senator James Lankford has a commanding 17-point lead going into his first re-election to the U.S. Senate over his Democratic challenger, Madison Horn, who trails in name identification and fundraising.


The poll was conducted as a baseline at the beginning of the general election which will be held in November. News9 and Newson6 in Tulsa commissioned the poll.

[QUESTION] If the upcoming Novemberelection for U.S. Senate was held TODAY and you were in the voting booth rightnow and had to make a choice, for whom would you vote?

1.  James Lankford:  52.1%
2.  Madison Horn:  35.4
3.  Michael Delaney:  4.0
4.  Don’t Know/Undecided: 8.4

Lankford leads among men and women voters, with 55.3 to 34.4 percent of men and 49.5 to 36.3 percent of women for Horn.

Both candidates are getting the vast majority of their own party's voters and trading very little to each other. Lankford is getting 84.3 percent of Republicans and only losing seven percent to Horn, while Horn is getting 81.5 percent of Democrats and only losing 6.8 percent to Lankford. Independents, however, favor Horn 53.1 percent to 12.1 percent for Lankford.

Conservatives, who make up more than half of the entire electorate in the state, overwhelmingly support Lankford, and liberals, who make up about one-in-five voters, overwhelmingly support Horn. Moderates, who make about one third of the electorate, favor Horn by 23 points with 54 percent for Horn and 31 percent for Lankford.

Lankford is beating Horn in every congressional district in the state, as few as four points in the 4th district and as much as 35 points in the 2nd district.

About the Poll, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters in an exclusive poll for News9 and Newson6 in Tulsa.

The scientific study was conducted from September 2-7, 2022 with 402 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a dual-frame of both landline and SoonerPoll's proprietary online panel. The landline sample was collected using IVR (Interactive Voice Response). The sample was weighted by age, party, gender, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a general election. The weighting was conducted using a 'layered technique.'

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and nearly a third identifying as Moderate. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ±4.89 percent.

A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

Bill Shapard
About the Author

Bill Shapard

Bill is the founder of and ShapardResearch, a full service market research firm based in Oklahoma City. Bill began his career in polling after working on major campaigns for both Republicans and Democrats in Oklahoma from 1996 until founding SoonerPoll in 2004.