US Senate
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May 28, 2022
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Bill Shapard

Nearly Two Out of Three Republicans Would Vote or Considering Voting for a Trump Endorsed Candidate for the US Senate

The Trump Effect is alive and well in Oklahoma.

With US Senator Jim Inhofe announcing this retirement literally a week before the candidate filing period in April, none of the 13 candidates running, sans his Chief of Staff that is an announced candidate, saw it coming. No time to prepare, build a candidate, increase name identification with voters or raise money. Absent these, an endorsement from former President Donald Trump might just be the ticket to the forefront of the pack.

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In News9 and Newson6's recent poll commissioned with SoonerPoll, 204 percent of Republican primary voters said they would vote for the Trump-endorsed candidate. Another 43.7 percent said they would consider voting that candidate, meaning 64.1 percent would be highly impacted by Trump making an endorsement selection.

[Question] If President Donald Trump endorsed a candidate for the US Senate seat that is being vacated by Senator Jim Inhofe, how would it be helpful in making your decision?
  1. I would vote for them 20.4
  2. I would consider voting for them 43.7
  3. It would have no tangible effect on my decision 27.6
  4. I would not consider voting for them 6.4
  5. Don't know/refused 1.9

There were no significant results for this question in the cross-tabulated data among the major demographic subsets.

However, the largest percentage of those who would vote for the Trump-endorsed candidate was the highest in CD2, Mullins' congressional district who is currently leading in the polling. But, 45 percent to 56 percent would consider the Trump-endorsed candidate in the three districts in the western parts of the state that know Mullins the least.

If there ever was a time that an endorsement could have the greatest impact on a race, it is this one.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, conducted the poll of Oklahoma likely REPUBLICAN VOTERS for a primary election.  The poll was commissioned by News9 in Oklahoma City and Newson6 in Tulsa.

The scientific study was conducted April 25-May 11, 2022 with 306 likely Republican voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of cell phones and landline telephones, and SoonerPoll's proprietary Oklahoma Voter Panel. Cell phone and landline participants were collected by live interviewer and panelist participants were collected through texts and emails. The sample was weighted by age and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely Republican voter population. The weighting was conducted using a 'layered technique.'  The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ±5.6 percent.

A complete description of the methodology can be found here. Photo by Gage Skidmore

Bill Shapard
About the Author

Bill Shapard

Bill is the founder of SoonerPoll.com and ShapardResearch, a full service market research firm based in Oklahoma City. Bill began his career in polling after working on a major campaign in Oklahoma from 1996 until founding SoonerPoll in 2004.