US Senate
October 22, 2020
Bill Shapard

News9/Newson6 Exclusive Poll: Inhofe leads Broyles by 20 points in U.S. Senate race

Republican U.S. Senator Jim Inhofe has a substantial lead over his Democratic rival, Abby Broyles, in the U.S. Senate race that many have said might very well be Inhofe's final run for office. Inhofe would be 86 years old if re-elected and would be 92 at the end of the term. If he is able to complete this possible upcoming term, he would be the third oldest to serve in the senate in U.S. history.


The poll, which had a statewide sample of 5,466 likely voters -- the largest statewide poll ever conducted by SoonerPoll -- showed Inhofe was getting 85.5 percent of his Republican base of support and picking up 20.8 percent of support from Democrats. Independents, who make about ten percent of the electorate, favored Broyles 53.8 percent to 31 percent for Inhofe.

[QUESTION] If the upcoming November GENERAL election for your U.S. Senate seat was held today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now and had to make a choice, for whom would you vote?

1. Jim Inhofe, the Republican: 56.4%
2. Abby Broyles, the Democrat: 36.9
3. All other candidates: 2.4
4. Undecided: 4.3

Inhofe dominated among male likely voters with 60.5 percent to 33.9 percent for Broyles, and still led his female rival among women 53 percent to 39.4 percent for Broyles.

Inhofe led in every age group except those under the age of 34 who slightly favored Broyles 47.7 percent to 42.3 percent. Those under the age of 34 only make up about eight percent of the electorate.

Moderates favored Broyles 65.1 percent to 27.4 percent, but Inhofe won decisively among self-identified conservative voters who make up more than half of the electorate on election day.

In the 5th congressional district, however, Inhofe is slightly losing to Broyles 46 percent to 47.4 percent for Broyles. The 5th congressional district is currently represented by Democrat Kendra Horn and has been trending Democratic in the last few election cycles.

About the Poll, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, conducted the poll of Oklahoma likely voters for a general election.  The poll was commissioned by News9 in Oklahoma City and Newson6 in Tulsa.

The scientific study was conducted October 15-20, 2020 with 5,466 likely voters selected at random statewide from a dual-frame of cell phones and landline telephones. Cell phone participants were texted a link to conduct the poll on their phones and landline participants were collected using IVR (Interactive Voice Response) technology. The sample was weighted by political party, age, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population. The weighting was conducted using a 'layered technique.'  The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ±1.32 percent.

A complete description of the methodology can be found here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

Bill Shapard
About the Author

Bill Shapard

Bill is the founder of and ShapardResearch, a full service market research firm based in Oklahoma City. Bill began his career in polling after working on major campaigns for both Republicans and Democrats in Oklahoma from 1996 until founding SoonerPoll in 2004.