November 2, 2014
Bill Shapard

TulsaWorld: Oklahoma poll: Fallin out front; state superintendent race still close


By RANDY KREHBIEL World Staff Writer

Gov. Mary Fallin leads Democratic challenger Joe Dorman by 11 percentage points as Tuesday’s voting deadline nears, and the contest for state superintendent of schools remains neck and neck, according to the latest Oklahoma Poll.

The telephone survey of 404 likely voters was conducted Oct. 25-29 by SoonerPoll, and has a 4.87 percent margin of error.

Just under 50 percent of those surveyed say they intend to vote for Fallin on Tuesday, compared to just under 40 percent who said they’ll vote for Dorman.

Two independents received less than 3 percent, and 9 percent were undecided.

In the superintendent’s race, Republican Joy Hofmeister was at 43 percent and Democrat John Cox at 40 percent, with a substantial 17 percent undecided.

Republicans Jim Inhofe and James Lankford had substantial leads in their U.S. Senate races.

Who turns out to vote in what has been a relatively low-key election will probably make a big difference in the results, said SoonerPoll President Bill Shapard.

“All of this depends on just how depressed Democrats are,” said Shapard. “If they don’t turn out, Republicans will win by even more.”

Shapard acknowledged that dissatisfaction with Fallin and an unusual interest in the state superintendent’s race could, in fact, turn that aphorism on its head.

But, he said, national trends and voter history in Oklahoma indicates Republicans are more likely to vote than Democrats.

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About the Oklahoma Poll

The poll of 404 likely voters registered in Oklahoma was conducted Oct. 25-29 by and included 136 cellphone and 268 landline users. The poll was sponsored by the Tulsa World. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.87 percentage points.

Poll results were weighted by age, gender and congressional district, stratified by Oklahoma likely voters statewide. This poll conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

Bill Shapard
About the Author

Bill Shapard

Bill is the founder of and ShapardResearch, a full service market research firm based in Oklahoma City. Bill began his career in polling after working on a major campaign in Oklahoma from 1996 until founding SoonerPoll in 2004.