US Senate
October 7, 2004
Bill Shapard

Post Debates, Carson and Coburn are tied.

OKLAHOMA CITY - Following two debates of the candidates, one on NBC's Meet the Press and another in Oklahoma City, both Brad Carson (D) and Tom Coburn (R) are tied with just under a month left to campaign., a public opinion research firm in Oklahoma City, conducted the telephone poll of 330 statewide likely voters Thursday for Fox25 in Oklahoma City showing Carson with 39.8%, 39.2% for Coburn and 21% undecided. The survey had a margin of error of 5.4%.

It would appear that Carson has begun to lose grip of his party base losing 21.4% of Democrats, up from 18% just a week ago. Meanwhile, Coburn has gained 2 points among Republican voters, bringing his cross-party advantage to 10%.

Coburn's support among both men and women has grown with 5% more women now undecided, leaving political observers to speculate that Carson may have gone too far with a controversial TV ad attacking Coburn over tornado funding five years ago.

Coburn also had Vice President Dick Cheney visit Oklahoma on his behalf and announced earlier this week that former President George H. W. Bush would visit the state later this month.

The two televised debates may also have had an impact on the race, giving more Oklahoma voters a chance to see both candidates together for the first time during this campaign.

The TV ad war continued this week as the Republican Senatorial Committee began running a controversial ad that this week drew criticism from the Democratic senatorial committee. The ad draws from an earlier Carson ad about illegal immigration driving down wages, ending with Carson saying one thing in Oklahoma and voting another way in Washington. Democrats condemned the ad as 'race-baiting,' showing images of Hispanic farm workers and black hands receiving welfare dollars.

Also, Coburn's latest TV ad ties Carson to a liberal group who opposes the war on terror, while comparing Carson's record to Democratic Presidential nominee John Kerry's. No new ads from Carson have been released.

Bill Shapard
About the Author

Bill Shapard

Bill is the founder of and ShapardResearch, a full service market research firm based in Oklahoma City. Bill began his career in polling after working on major campaigns for both Republicans and Democrats in Oklahoma from 1996 until founding SoonerPoll in 2004.