June 16, 2010
Wesley Burt

One-on-one match ups find Fallin leading Governor race

Though the general election is still months away, Oklahomans weigh in on possible Governor match ups and the results reveal a definite leader.

With the Republican primary approaching, Mary Fallin appears poised to be the Republican nominee for governor with a 48.8 point lead over next closest challenger Randy Brogdon.

The Democratic Gubernatorial nominee race remains a toss-up, as Drew Edmondson maintains only a 1.3 point lead over Jari Askins, with in the margin of error.

SoonerPoll asked likely voters who they would vote for in a series of match ups and found that in a Governor race between the two leaders, Fallin and Edmondson, Fallin leads by a margin 15.6 points with 50.3 percent of respondent's support, while 35 percent said they would vote for Edmondson.

Fallin also bests Askins in a one-on-one match up, but not by as large of a margin. Fallin gained 48.5 percent of respondent's support while 36.2 percent said they would vote for Askins. This is a slight turn-around from the January and April polls that found Askins trailing Fallin by a larger margin than Edmondson.

"Since the primary campaign began in earnest, Edmondson's lead over Askins has evaporated," Keith Gaddie, Vice President of SoonerPoll, said. "There are still six weeks in the campaign, and the electorate is only now starting to really engage this contest. The expectations of a close Democratic primary are being borne out. However, the general election trial heats indicate a Republican year, though Rep. Fallin's elect number continues to hover under 50 percent." conducted the scientific study using live interviewers by telephone of 503 likely voters from May 25 - June 8, 2010. The study has a margin of error of ±4.4 percent.

Results show that even if Brogdon, who only holds 10.2 percent of his own party's support, were to turn the tide and win the Republican primary the Republicans would not fare as well in the general election.

When asked who they would vote for in a race between Edmondson and Brogdon, 41.2 percent of respondents said they would vote for Edmondson while only 40.2 percent said they would vote for Brogdon.

Brogdon fares even worse in a one-on-one match up with Askins who earned 43.5 percent of respondent's support while only 35.8 percent said they would vote for Brogdon.

"These trial heat numbers affirm, in Oklahoma, the suspicions held about Tea-oriented candidates," Gaddie said. "Even in conservative states, if a candidate pushes too far to the right, it imperils Republican prospects. Oklahoma is a very conservative state, but voters are not so conservative as to choose a candidate to the right of the GOP mainstream."

Wesley Burt
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Wesley Burt