November 20, 2015
Mike McCarville

McCarville Report: 2018 Governor’s Race: Who’s Favored?

In three years, Oklahoma voters will select a new governor and although that election seems far distant, the speculation about Republican candidates is rampant.

Will Attorney General Scott Pruitt run? Congressman Jim Bridenstine? Lt. Governor Todd Lamb? How about Treasurer Ken Miller? How about Insurance Commissioner John Doak? How about…? The list goes on and on. But the three most often heard are those in focus today, Pruitt, Bridenstine, Lamb. The race likely will be hotly contested with numerous candidates and a likely runoff for the GOP nomination.

Any of those three could mount a formidable campaign and two of them, Lamb and Pruitt, are in the statewide public eye almost constantly with appearances, speeches and news releases.

How do voters view those three potential contenders?

To find out, The McCarville Report commissioned Bill Shapard’s SoonerPoll to ask about the 2018 governor’s race and he did so, in his most recent sampling of public opinion on numerous issues.

[QUESTION] Looking ahead now to the 2018 gubernatorial election in Oklahoma.  If the Republican primary was TODAY and you were standing in the voting booth RIGHT NOW and had to make a choice, for whom would you vote? [READ AND ROTATE]
1. Lt. Governor Todd Lamb 32.6
2. Attorney General Scott Pruitt 16.4
3. First District Congressman Jim Bridenstine 18.8
3. Undecided [DNR] 32.2

Lamb is popular statewide. He’s the runaway favorite in the 3rd Congressional District (41-13 over Pruitt, Bridenstine at 13.7%) and the 4th (52-15 over Pruitt, Bridenstine at 8.7%). Bridenstine leads in his home 1st District with 33.3%, with Lamb at 19.6 and Pruitt at 17.6. In the 2nd, Bridenstine leads with 31%, followed by Lamb and Pruitt, tied at 13.8 percent.

ContinuedClick here to read the entire McCarville Report article


About the Poll, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll, and commissioned by the McCarville Report.

The scientific study was conducted from September 1-15, 2015 with 403 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a dual frame of both landline telephone and cell phones. The sample was weighted by political party and age in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a general election.

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.88 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll's Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

Mike McCarville
About the Author

Mike McCarville