US House
October 2, 2018
Bill Shapard

Newcomer Kevin Hern has advantage in First Congressional District open seat

Kevin Hern, a Tulsa area businessman new to politics leads Tulsa attorney Tim Gilpin in the race to succeed Jim Bridenstine who was confirmed as the new director of NASA earlier this year.

CLICK HERE: for the complete topline and crosstab report

Hern led Gilpin by just over 21 points, similar to the results of a statewide generic congressional ballot performed earlier this year.

[QUESTION] If the November general election for UNITED STATES CONGRESS were TODAY and you were standing in the voting booth right now and had to make a choice, for whom would you vote?

1. Kevin Hern, the Republican 54.0%
2. Tim Gilpin, the Democrat 31.9
3. Don't know/Refused [DNR] 14.1

Hern had the support of 82.5 percent of Republicans while only giving up 8.5 percent, but also had 12.2 percent of Democrats giving him a net-positive crossover vote of only 3.7 points. This was the smallest amount of crossover vote for any Republican congressional candidate polled in the state.

Eighty-two percent of self-identified conservatives supported Hern, but trailed among moderate voters 34.5 to 41.6 percent for Gilpin.

Hern beat Gilpin among men voters by nearly 35 points, but only won out among women voters 46.5 percent to 34.4 percent for Gilpin.

Hern won handily among evanglicals and frequent church goers. Those that attend church weekly or more make up 54.5 percent of the electorate. Fifty-two percent of the electorate also identify as evangelical.

About the Poll, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, conducted the poll of Oklahoma likely voters in the 1st congressional district, and was commissioned by News9 and Newson6.

The scientific study was conducted September 15-25, 2018 with 306 likely voters selected at random from a tri-frame of SoonerPoll's own online panel, cell phones and landline telephones. For cell phone and landline telephones, voters are selected at random from SoonerPoll's voter database and matched with cell and landline phone numbers.  Cell phone participants are collected using live interviewers and landline participants are collected using both live interviewer and IVR (Interactive Voice Response) technology. The sample was weighted by age, gender and political party in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population in the 1st congressional district.

The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ±5.6 percent.

Bill Shapard
About the Author

Bill Shapard

Bill is the founder of and ShapardResearch, a full service market research firm based in Oklahoma City. Bill began his career in polling after working on major campaigns for both Republicans and Democrats in Oklahoma from 1996 until founding SoonerPoll in 2004.