US House
October 2, 2018
Bill Shapard

Mullin nears 50 percent in four-man race for re-election to congress

Congressman Markwayne Mullin has a comfortable lead going into the last 5 weeks of the November election according to the latest SoonerPoll.

CLICK HERE: for complete topline and crosstab report.

Mullin led his Democratic challenger, Jason Nichols, by nearly 14 points.  Two other candidates were in the single digits with just under 12 percent still undecided. This result is similar to the generic ballot test performed earlier in the year by SoonerPoll.

[QUESTION] If the November general election for UNITED STATES CONGRESS were TODAY and you were standing in the voting booth right now and had to make a choice, for whom would you vote?

1. Markwayne Mullin, the Republican 46.0%
2. Jason Nichols, the Democrat 32.2
3. Richard Castaldo, the Libertarian 3.92
4. John Foreman, the Independent 6.23
5. Don't know/Refused [DNR] 11.8

Mullin gains the support of nearly 70 percent of Republican voters and 31.4 percent of Democratic voters while only giving up 8.2 percent to Nichols, giving him a 23.2 percent net positive party crossover advantage.

Nearly sixty-nine percent of self-identified conservatives supported Mullin as well, but he trailed Nichols among moderate voters, 28.5 to 45 percent for Nichols.

Mullin bested Nichols among men and women voters, evangelicals, and those that attend church weekly or more. Mullin also beat out Nichols among voters in the suburban parts of Tulsa that are in the district, 40.9 to 35.5 percent for Nichols, and among voters in the more rural parts of the district, 48.7 to 30.4 percent.

About the Poll, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, conducted the poll of Oklahoma likely voters in the 2nd congressional district, and was commissioned by News9 and Newson6.

The scientific study was conducted September 15-25, 2018 with 245 likely voters selected at random from a tri-frame of SoonerPoll's own online panel, cell phones and landline telephones. For cell phone and landline telephones, voters are selected at random from SoonerPoll's voter database and matched with cell and landline phone numbers.  Cell phone participants are collected using live interviewers and landline participants are collected using both live interviewer and IVR (Interactive Voice Response) technology. The sample was weighted by age, gender and political party in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population in the 2nd congressional district.

The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ±6.26 percent.

Bill Shapard
About the Author

Bill Shapard

Bill is the founder of and ShapardResearch, a full service market research firm based in Oklahoma City. Bill began his career in polling after working on major campaigns for both Republicans and Democrats in Oklahoma from 1996 until founding SoonerPoll in 2004.