US House
May 26, 2018
Bill Shapard

Generic congressional ballot shows Republicans leading Democrats by nearly 25 points

When asked to consider candidates for the United States Congress, Oklahoma likely voters favor the Republican candidate over the Democratic candidate in the latest News9/Newson6 Poll. Currently, all of Oklahoma's five congressional districts are represented by Republicans.


A strong majority of likely voters supported the candidate of their own party, with 64 percent of Democrats supporting the Democratic candidate and 82.5 percent of Republicans supporting the Republican candidate.  The "crossover" vote favored the Republicans by a net 15.2 points, with 18.5 percent of Democrats favoring the Republican candidate and the Republican candidate only losing 3.3 percent of his or her own party.

"There has been much discussion this year at the national level of Democrats possibly picking up a congressional seat here in redstate Oklahoma," said Bill Shapard, CEO of, "but we're just not seeing that in the numbers."

[QUESTION] Thinking about the November general election for the United States Congress, if the election were held TODAY would you vote for: [RANDOM READ]

1. The Republican candidate 53.2%
2. The Democratic candidate 28.9
3. Neither 3.7
4. Undecided 14.1

In the most talked about 5th District which takes in most of Oklahoma City with Pottawatomie and Seminole counties, the generic ballot Republican candidate led the Democratic candidate by 51.8 to 36 percent.

In Tulsa's 1st Congressional district, the margin was higher with 53.4 percent for the generic ballot Republican candidate and 28.5 percent for the Democrat.

In the more rural 3rd and 4th congressional districts where Republicans have made large increases in registration over the last couple of decades, the generic Republican candidate led the Democratic candidate with an even greater margin. Congressman Frank Lucas' 3rd district was 55.6 percent for the generic ballot Republican to 25.4 percent for the Democrat.  In Congressman Tom Cole's 4th district, the margin was 57.7 percent to 24.1 percent.

Congressman MarkWayne Mullin, who represents the former Democratic powerhouse known as "little Dixie," led by the least of the congressional margins but still by 16 points, with the generic ballot Republican at 47.4 percent to 31 percent for the Democrat.

"Oklahomans have favored sending Republicans to Washington, DC for the better part of three decades," said Shapard, who went on to note that the last time Oklahomans voted for a Democratic president was in 1964 and the last time Oklahomans sent a Democrat to congress was 2010.

About the Poll, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, conducted the poll of Oklahoma likely voters, which was commissioned by News9 and Newson6.

The scientific study was conducted May 15-23, 2018 with 622 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a 5-frame of SoonerPoll's own online panel, Research Now's voter panel, cell phones and landline telephones. For cell phone and landline telephones, voters are selected at random from SoonerPoll's voter database and matched with cell and landline phone numbers.  Cell phone participants are collected using live interviewers and landline participants are collected using both live interviewer and IVR (Interactive Voice Response) technology. The sample was weighted by age, gender, political party and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a primary election.

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 3.93 percent.

Bill Shapard
About the Author

Bill Shapard

Bill is the founder of and ShapardResearch, a full service market research firm based in Oklahoma City. Bill began his career in polling after working on major campaigns for both Republicans and Democrats in Oklahoma from 1996 until founding SoonerPoll in 2004.