US House
July 31, 2018
Bill Shapard

Former Tulsa DA Tim Harris leads businessman Kevin Hern in first congressional district GOP run-off

According to the most recent Newson6 poll, Tulsa County's former District Attorney Tim Harris is leading in the Republican run-off election for the first congressional district of Oklahoma, which takes in nearly all of the Tulsa metro area including Washington, Wagoner, Creek and Rogers counties.

CLICK HERE: For complete topline and crosstab poll results

Harris led businessman Kevin Hern by just over 11 points, with 36.1 percent still undecided.

[QUESTION] If the Republican primary run-off for CONGRESS was today and you were standing in the voting booth right now, for whom would you vote? [READ IN ROTATED ORDER]

1. Tim Harris 37.5%
2. Kevin Hern 26.4
3. Undecided/not sure [DNR] 36.1

Harris led in the most critical places in the poll.

Among of those in Tulsa County, which makes up 76 percent of the electorate, Harris led by nearly 17 points -- 42.1 to 25.3 percent for Hern. Among those over the age of 65, Harris led Hern by nearly 16 points, and 9.5 points among those age 55 to 64.

Run-off elections are also dominated by high propensity voters, and SoonerPoll scores these voters based on their likeliness to vote in an upcoming election.  Among the highest scored voters, Harris well outperformed Hern, indicating that Harris voters, as a whole, are more likely to turn themselves out to the polls which is critical in typically low turnout elections like run-offs.

Harris also performed well in the suburb of Broken Arrow, beating Hern by 14.5 points, 42.3 to 27.8 percent for Hern.  The state senator for Broken Arrow, Nathan Dahm, who also ran for the seat, did not make the run-off election.

Harris also led among men, 36.8 to 27.3 percent, and among women 38.1 to 25.7 percent.

About the Poll, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, conducted the poll of Oklahoma likely voters, which was commissioned by Newson6, Tulsa's CBS affiliate.

The scientific study was conducted July 24-29, 2018 with 811 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a dual frame of SoonerPoll's online panel recruited from cell phones and landline telephones which were conducted using IVR (Interactive Voice Response) technology. The sample was weighted by age, gender, political party and congressional district in order to reflect the Republican likely voter population for a run-off election.

The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ±3.43 percent.

Bill Shapard
About the Author

Bill Shapard

Bill is the founder of and ShapardResearch, a full service market research firm based in Oklahoma City. Bill began his career in polling after working on major campaigns for both Republicans and Democrats in Oklahoma from 1996 until founding SoonerPoll in 2004.