US House
May 9, 2006
Bill Shapard

Fallin leads in congressional race, Cornett's candidacy still uncertain.

OKLAHOMA CITY - With less than 90 days before the July 25th primary, Lt. Gov. Mary Fallin led the field of congressional hopefuls with 49.5% and all other candidates in the single digits. However, when Mick Cornett, the mayor of Oklahoma City and another possible candidate, is tested along side the other announced candidates, Fallin falls to 30.5% and Cornett gains 28.8% of the vote., a public opinion research firm in Oklahoma City, conducted the telephone poll of 400 5th Congressional district likely Republican voters May 1-4th for News9 (KWTV) in Oklahoma City. The margin of error was 4.9%.

Further analysis of the data presents a difficult challenge for Mayor Cornett should he decide to enter the race. A breakdown of poll participants by their self-described political ideology shows that the more conservative the voter, the more likely they were to support Fallin; for Cornett, the more the moderate or liberal the voter, the more likely they were to support the Oklahoma City mayor.

"The race right now is being dominated by name identification," said Bill Shapard, SoonerPoll's CEO. "Cornett's possible entry into the congressional race may be short-lived with a severe disadvantage in fundraising compared to the other candidates as well as a lack of appeal to the more conservative base of the Republican Party."

Shapard noted that additional analysis of those undecided in the match-up were 42.2% identified as "very conservative" and another 38.8% as "somewhat conservative."

Without Cornett in the race, the results for all the candidates were: Mary Fallin (49.5%), Denise Bode (8.3%), Kevin Calvey (5.5%), Fred Morgan (3.5%), with 33.3% undecided.

With Cornett in the race, the results were: Fallin (30.5%), Cornett (28.8%), Denise Bode (4.3%), Kevin Calvey (4%), Fred Morgan (2.5%), with 30% undecided.

Top issues for Republican voters were reforming immigration, reducing government spending and promoting Christian values. 47% of those polled believed the candidate's view on immigration was "very important" and another 36.1% responded "somewhat important" when deciding on who they would vote for in the congressional race.

Bill Shapard
About the Author

Bill Shapard

Bill is the founder of and ShapardResearch, a full service market research firm based in Oklahoma City. Bill began his career in polling after working on major campaigns for both Republicans and Democrats in Oklahoma from 1996 until founding SoonerPoll in 2004.