US House
May 9, 2006
Bill Shapard

Fallin leads in congressional race, Cornett's candidacy still uncertain.

OKLAHOMA CITY � With less than 90 days before the July 25th primary, Lt. Gov. Mary Fallin led the field of congressional hopefuls with 49.5% and all other candidates in the single digits.� However, when Mick Cornett, the mayor of Oklahoma City and another possible candidate, is tested along side the other announced candidates, Fallin falls to 30.5% and Cornett gains 28.8% of the vote., a public opinion research firm in Oklahoma City, conducted the telephone poll of 400 5th Congressional district likely Republican voters May 1-4th for News9 (KWTV) in Oklahoma City.� The margin of error was 4.9%.

Further analysis of the data presents a difficult challenge for Mayor Cornett should he decide to enter the race.� A breakdown of poll participants by their self-described political ideology shows that the more conservative the voter, the more likely they were to support Fallin; for Cornett, the more the moderate or liberal the voter, the more likely they were to support the Oklahoma City mayor.

�The race right now is being dominated by name identification,� said Bill Shapard, SoonerPoll�s CEO.� �Cornett�s possible entry into the congressional race may be short-lived with a severe disadvantage in fundraising compared to the other candidates as well as a lack of appeal to the more conservative base of the Republican Party.�

Shapard noted that additional analysis of those undecided in the match-up were 42.2% identified as �very conservative� and another 38.8% as �somewhat conservative.�

Without Cornett in the race, the results for all the candidates were: Mary Fallin (49.5%), Denise Bode (8.3%), Kevin Calvey (5.5%), Fred Morgan (3.5%), with 33.3% undecided.

With Cornett in the race, the results were: Fallin (30.5%), Cornett (28.8%), Denise Bode (4.3%), Kevin Calvey (4%), Fred Morgan (2.5%), with 30% undecided.

Top issues for Republican voters were reforming immigration, reducing government spending and promoting Christian values.� 47% of those polled believed the candidate�s view on immigration was �very important,� and another 36.1% responded �somewhat important� when deciding on who they would vote for in the congressional race.

Bill Shapard
About the Author

Bill Shapard

Bill is the founder of and ShapardResearch, a full service market research firm based in Oklahoma City. Bill began his career in polling after working on a major campaign in Oklahoma from 1996 until founding SoonerPoll in 2004.