August 5, 2019
Bill Shapard

Trump's favorability among Oklahomans is steady, but the polarization grows.

For a man who up until the White House had never held public office before, Donald Trump knows how to grow his base, but he also knows how to grow his opposition as well.

In the latest SoonerPoll Quarterly of likely Oklahoma voters, Trump's overall favorability remains relatively unchanged at 58.3 percent. In comparison, last September 59.2 percent viewed him favorable.

The movement, however, under those surface numbers is more telling.

Last September, 38.6 percent were very favorable toward him. Now, it's 41 percent.  Then, 31.8 percent were very unfavorable toward him. Now, it's 33.1 percent.

[QUESTION] Now, I'm going to read to you a list of individuals or organizations. For each one, please tell me if you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE. If you don't know them or have an opinion, just let me know.  

1. Very favorable 41.0%
2. Somewhat favorable 17.3
3. No opinion/Don't know/Refused [DNR] 2.4
4. Somewhat unfavorable 6.2
5. Very unfavorable 33.1

Among Republicans, Trump had a combined favorable rating of 85.1 percent last September. Now, it's 87.5 percent. Among Democrats, Trump was seen favorable last September by 32.1 percent. Now, it's 27.4 percent.

Oklahoma's electoral votes next year do not appear in jeopardy for Republicans as the state continues to see the red rural areas overpower the growing blue urban areas. But, the question remains, is the loss of appeal among urban voters for Trump going to continue to hurt Republicans' state senate and house chances?

So far, it doesn't look like Trump is doing any favors for Oklahoma Republicans, who would like to win back an Oklahoma City congressional seat in 2020 and several Republican-majority senate and house seats that were lost in 2018.

About the Poll, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll.

The scientific study was conducted from July 17-27, 2019 with 373 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus SoonerPoll's proprietary online panel. The sample was weighted by age, political party and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a primary election. The weighting was conducted using a 'layered technique.'

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 5.07 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll's Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

Bill Shapard
About the Author

Bill Shapard

Bill is the founder of and ShapardResearch, a full service market research firm based in Oklahoma City. Bill began his career in polling after working on major campaigns for both Republicans and Democrats in Oklahoma from 1996 until founding SoonerPoll in 2004.