October 19, 2022
Bill Shapard

Oklahoma Is Still Trump Country, Leads Biden by 12 Points

Former President Donald Trump has a double-digit lead on President Joe Biden in a potential 2024 match-up, according to the most recent SoonerPoll commissioned by News 9 and News on 6 in Tulsa, the largest Oklahoma television stations in their respective markets.


Trump was seen as favorable among likely voters with 47.8 percent and 43.2 percent had a very unfavorable opinion of him. Biden, on the other hand, had 55.9 percent who viewed him as very unfavorable with only 39.7 percent favorable.

[QUESTION] Looking forward to 2024, if Former President Trump runs again, and President Biden runs for re-election, whom would you vote?
1.  Former President Donald Trump, the Republican:  52.7%
2.  President Joe Biden, the Democrat:  40.8
3.  Don’t Know/Undecided:  6.5

Both Trump and Biden had the overwhelming support of their own parties, with 12.3 percent of Independents supporting Trump and 61.6 percent supporting Biden.

Men, by an almost two-to-one margin supported Trump (62.5 to 32.6 percent), and Biden led only slightly among women, 46.9 percent to 45.5 percent. Nearly two-thirds of all men had a very unfavorable opinion of Biden, while 47.5 percent of women had an unfavorable opinion of Trump.

As polarizing as the two candidates are, conservatives overwhelmingly supported Trump and likewise for Liberals of Biden. Moderates favored Biden 65.2 percent to 27.5 percent for Trump.

Among the 6.5 percent that were undecided, 49.5 percent had a very unfavorable opinion of Trump, but of those same voters, 65.2 percent had a very unfavorable opinion of Biden.

Of those over the age of 65, Trump led Biden 56.9 percent to 40.2 percent. Among those age 55 to 64, Trump also led Biden 52.8 percent to 33.8 percent. Likely voters over the age of 54 make up over two-thirds of the electorate on election day.

About the Poll, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters in an exclusive poll for News9 and Newson6 in Tulsa.

The scientific study was conducted from October 4-6, 2022 with 301 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a dual-frame of both landline and SoonerPoll's proprietary online panel. The landline sample was collected using IVR (Interactive Voice Response). The sample was weighted by party, gender, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a general election. The weighting was conducted using a 'layered technique.'

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and nearly a third identifying as Moderate. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ±5.65 percent.

A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

Bill Shapard
About the Author

Bill Shapard

Bill is the founder of and ShapardResearch, a full service market research firm based in Oklahoma City. Bill began his career in polling after working on major campaigns for both Republicans and Democrats in Oklahoma from 1996 until founding SoonerPoll in 2004.