July 31, 2016
Bill Shapard

Oklahoman: Trump leads in state, poll finds, but neither candidate is popular

by Silas Allen, The Oklahoman

Donald Trump isn't in any danger of losing Oklahoma, but it isn't because voters here are overly fond of the real estate mogul.

With fewer than 100 days left before the general election, the Republican presidential candidate is holding a 24-point lead in Oklahoma over his Democratic rival, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, according to a presidential poll released last week.

But despite Trump's commanding lead, fewer than half of the poll's respondents told pollsters they viewed Trump favorably. Clinton's support is even weaker — a little over a quarter of respondents reported having a favorable view of the former first lady.

“People have a tough time liking either one of them,” said Bill Shapard, founder of the Oklahoma City-based polling firm SoonerPoll.

ContinuedClick here to read the entire Oklahoman article

Additional Take-aways from the poll results:

  • 26.1% of Democrats reported they were voting for Donald Trump, while only 4.4% of Republicans showed support for Hillary Clinton.
  • Independents favored Trump 43% to 33% for Clinton.
  • 67.8% of those who identify as "very liberal" were voting for Clinton, while 87.1% of self-identified "very conservative" were voting for Trump.
  • Gary Johnson only received 2.9% of "very conservatives" and 12.4% of "somewhat conservatives."
  • Among those who were undecided, 77.2% viewed Clinton as unfavorable and 71.8% viewed Trump as unfavorable.
  • If the conventional wisdom is that those who are undecided will not vote, then the Trump vote percentage would be 59.8% and Clinton at 32.3%.
  • Trump beat Clinton among every educational background subset, while Clinton bested Trump among voters 34 or younger. Trump won among those 35 or older and bested Clinton by 24.6 points among those 65 and older.
  • Trump also beat Clinton in every household income subset, except those making $25,000 to $34,000.
  • Clinton was favored by those who do not attend church services, while Trump won among those who attend any level of church service (annually to more than weekly).
  • Trump bested Clinton among evangelical voters by 48 points, while among those who do not identify as evangelical, Clinton edged out Trump 42.7% to 40.5%.
  • A majority of men (56.9% to 25.6)and a plurality of women (49.8 to 31.2) supported Trump, as well as those married (56.2 to 25.7) and a plurality of those not (43.8 to 37.9).
  • Trump won among those employed part time by 25.7 points and twice the number of full time workers voting for Clinton.
  • Trump also beat Clinton in every congressional district.

About the Poll, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll, and was commissioned by the Oklahoman.

The scientific study was conducted from July 20-25, 2016 with 398 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus a online panel from Research Now. The sample was weighted by age, congressional district and gender in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a general election.

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.91 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll's Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here. A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

Bill Shapard
About the Author

Bill Shapard

Bill is the founder of and ShapardResearch, a full service market research firm based in Oklahoma City. Bill began his career in polling after working on a major campaign in Oklahoma from 1996 until founding SoonerPoll in 2004.