October 29, 2020
Bill Shapard

News9/Newson6 Exclusive Poll: Trump leads Biden by 22 points among likely voting Oklahomans

Make no mistake about it, President Donald Trump is winning Oklahoma next week.  Leading former Democratic Vice President Joe Biden by 22 points, Oklahomans see Trump and his policies as the future that America needs, particularly in oil and gas matters.


The poll, which had a statewide sample of 5,466 likely voters -- the largest statewide poll ever conducted by SoonerPoll -- showed Trump doing well among Republicans, with 89.1 percent, and even getting 21.6 percent of Democrats.  Losing only 7.6 percent of Republicans to Biden, Trump has a net positive crossover vote of 14 points.

[QUESTION] If the upcoming November GENERAL election for PRESIDENT was held today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now and had to make a choice, for whom would you vote?

1. Donald Trump, the Republican 58.5%
2. Joe Biden, the Democrat: 36.53
3. All other candidates: 2.73
4. Undecided: 2.2

Among Independents, Trump trailed Biden 30.6 percent to 55.3 percent with 4.7 percent undecided.

Trump does have some weakness among women but still beating Biden with 56 percent to 39.7 percent for Biden, whereas among men Trump has a 28.9 percent advantage with 61.5 percent to 32.6 percent for Biden.

Trump trailed Biden among voters under the age of 34 but only by 5.8 points, with 42 percent for Trump and 47.8 percent for Biden. Those under the age of 34 only make up about six percent of the electorate.

But, Trump dominated among every other age group, besting Biden by 28.4 points among those aged 50-64 and 24 points among those over the age of 65.  Those over the age of 50 make nearly 72 percent of the electorate on election day.

Biden won overwhelming among liberals and Trump did the same among conservatives, but moderates favored Biden heavily with 65.1 percent for Biden and 26.9 percent for Trump.

About the Poll, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, conducted the poll of Oklahoma likely voters for a general election.  The poll was commissioned by News9 in Oklahoma City and Newson6 in Tulsa.

The scientific study was conducted October 15-20, 2020 with 5,466 likely voters selected at random statewide from a dual-frame of cell phones and landline telephones. Cell phone participants were texted a link to conduct the poll on their phones and landline participants were collected using IVR (Interactive Voice Response) technology. The sample was weighted by political party, age, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population. The weighting was conducted using a 'layered technique.'  The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ±1.32 percent.

A complete description of the methodology can be found here. A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

Bill Shapard
About the Author

Bill Shapard

Bill is the founder of and ShapardResearch, a full service market research firm based in Oklahoma City. Bill began his career in polling after working on major campaigns for both Republicans and Democrats in Oklahoma from 1996 until founding SoonerPoll in 2004.