Statewide
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August 14, 2016
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Bill Shapard

TulsaWorld: Poll shows growing dissatisfaction with state lawmakers

By RANDY KREHBIEL World Staff Writer

Oklahomans are more dissatisfied with their own Legislature than they are President Barack Obama, and are only slightly happier with Gov. Mary Fallin, according to a poll released late Friday.

Click: Question wording and topline results

The Democratic chief executive has consistently scored low with Oklahoma voters and is generally viewed as deeply unpopular in the state. His numbers have improved slightly in recent months, but that is not why he’s suddenly in the same ranks as Fallin and the Republican-led Legislature when it comes to public perception.

In SoonerPoll.com’s statewide survey, Obama’s 36 percent favorable rating was 2 points better than the Legislature’s and only 3 points behind Fallin.

ContinuedClick here to read the entire Tulsa World article

Additional Take-aways from the poll results:

Governor Fallin's favorablity

  • Only 39.3% viewed Fallin favorably, which is a considerable decrease from 55% in November 2015, and substantial decrease from her high of 71% three years ago.
  • Now, only 55.7% of Republicans are favorable toward Fallin, down from 86% three years ago.
  • Among Democrats, Fallin was seen favorably by 57.5% three years ago. Today, only 23.5% Democrats view Fallin favorably.
  • The fall among Independents is also substantial, from 65.8% three years ago to just 23.7% today.
  • Only 38% of likely voters in Oklahoma's 5th congressional district, which Fallin represented in congress, viewed her favorably.

Evaluation of Fallin's leadership skills

  • Just 10.9% of Republicans rated Fallin's leadership skills as 'excellent,' 31.1% as 'good,' and a plurality of Republicans, 32.4%, as 'fair.' The remaining 23.1% of Republicans rated Fallin as 'poor.'
  • Among Democrats, 60.6% rated Fallin as 'poor,' 18.7% as 'fair,' and only 12.8% as 'good.' Only 5.7% of Democrats rated Fallin as 'excellent.'
  • Losing the conservative vote: While a plurality of self-identifed 'very conservatives' rated Fallin as 'fair,' a plurality (40.3%) of 'somewhat conservatives' rated her 'poor.'
  • A majority of moderates in the state (56.1%) rated her leadership as 'poor.'
  • A plurality, 45%, of likely voters in Fallin's former 5th congressional seat rated her as 'poor.'

Less competent than Henry or Keating

  • Likely voters were also asked to evaluate Fallin compared to former Democratic Governor Brad Henry, and former Republican Governor Frank Keating. Almost half, 49.6%, thought Fallin's administration was less competent than Henry's administration, and a near equal amount, 46.7%, thought Fallin's administration was less competent than Keating's.
  • 72.8% of Democrats thought Fallin was less competent than Henry, while only 11.1% thought she was more competent.
  • Among Republicans, results were mixed with 30.1% thinking Fallin was more competent than Henry, but 29.4% believed she was less competent than Democrat Henry.
  • While a majority of Democrats, 57.2% thought Fallin was less competent than Keating in comparing the two Republicans, a plurality (39.7%) of Republicans believed Fallin was less competent than Keating. Only 15.9% of Republicans believed Fallin was more competent than Keating.
  • A plurality of both 'somewhat conservatives' and 'very conservatives' believed Fallin was less competent than Keating, 40.6% and 36.2% respectively.
  • Losing her base: 54% of Fallin's former congressional district voters thought she as less competent than Henry and a stronger majority, 58.3%, believed she was less competent than former Governor Keating.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll.

The scientific study was conducted from July 20-25, 2016 with 398 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus a online panel from Research Now. The sample was weighted by age, congressional district and gender in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a general election.

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.91 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll's Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here. A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

Bill Shapard
About the Author

Bill Shapard

Bill is the founder of SoonerPoll.com and ShapardResearch, a full service market research firm based in Oklahoma City. Bill began his career in polling after working on a major campaign in Oklahoma from 1996 until founding SoonerPoll in 2004.