Statewide
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September 22, 2022
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Bill Shapard

Republicans lead Democrats in Generic Ballot for the Oklahoma State House and Senate

According to the most recent polling, Oklahoma Republicans lead by 22 points, 53.8 percent to 31.9 percent for Democrats, in the generic ballot for the State House and Senate. Republicans, who already have super majorities in the State House and Senate, may think the numbers indicate they might pick up a few more seats in the legislature but the question is where.

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The poll was commissioned by News9 and Newson6 in Tulsa among 402 likely voters selected at random in the state.

[QUESTION] If the upcoming November election for YOUR LOCAL OKLAHOMA LEGISLATIVE HOUSE AND SENATE was held TODAY and you were in the voting booth right now and had to make a choice, for whom would you vote?
1.  Republican:  53.8%
2.  Democrat:  31.9
3.  Independent:  1.8
4.  Libertarian:  1.0
5.  Don’t Know/Undecided:  11.5

Republicans are looking to win back seats in the more suburban areas of Oklahoma City and Tulsa that were lost to Democrats during the Trump era, while sitting on a solid base of rural seats. House districts in Owasso and Norman, for example, were Republicans seats before changing over to Democrats over the last six years.

Democrats are looking to continue their growth in urban areas where Democrats have made generational gains in urban cities all over the nation and in Oklahoma City and Tulsa, but just at a slower pace. Democrats are looking at Republican seats in Bethany and the Mid-Del area as urbanization has creeped into these once suburban areas of Oklahoma City.

Some political insiders also believe a few seats in urban Tulsa and possible Lawton may be in play for the Democrats as well as the one-time Republican-turn-Democrat, Joy Hofmeister, is showing strength in these districts as she runs for governor.

Republicans are confident that, at the end of election day, they will end up with a net gain to add to their already huge majority.

About the Poll

SoonerPoll.com, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters in an exclusive poll for News9 and Newson6 in Tulsa.

The scientific study was conducted from September 2-7, 2022 with 402 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a dual-frame of both landline and SoonerPoll's proprietary online panel. The landline sample was collected using IVR (Interactive Voice Response). The sample was weighted by age, party, gender, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a general election. The weighting was conducted using a 'layered technique.'

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and nearly a third identifying as Moderate. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ±4.89 percent.

A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

Bill Shapard
About the Author

Bill Shapard

Bill is the founder of SoonerPoll.com and ShapardResearch, a full service market research firm based in Oklahoma City. Bill began his career in polling after working on a major campaign in Oklahoma from 1996 until founding SoonerPoll in 2004.