October 31, 2016
Bill Shapard

Oklahoman: In Oklahoma, evangelicals remain major voting bloc

By Ben Felder, Oklahoman

The path to victory in an Oklahoma election goes through the pews of the state's evangelical churches. And while the number of self-proclaimed evangelicals has declined in recent years, it remains one of the state's largest voting blocs and is instrumental in deciding everything from the result of state questions to Oklahoma's seven presidential electoral votes.

As a part of America's Bible Belt — if not the buckle — Oklahoma's likely voting population on Nov. 8 is estimated to be 55 percent evangelical, according to SoonerPoll's analysis of likely voters.

Made up of mostly white members of Protestant churches that profess a born again-centric theology, such as Southern Baptist Convention, Church of the Nazarene, Assemblies of God and many nondenominational churches, in Oklahoma as evangelicals go, so goes the state.

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[box] Support for Clinton/Trump and among the death penalty state question (SQ776), the Ten Commandments state question (SQ790), and expansion of wine/strong beer (SQ792), broken down by frequency of church attendance and by those who identify as evangelical

Frequency of church attendance and evangelicalSeveral times a weekWeeklyNeverEvangelicalClinton1340585215.1%25.0%43.7%17.7%Trump68976021477.4%60.6%45.0%72.6%SQ776 Support691149424078.5%71.3%70.9%81.7%SQ 790 Support29735812833.5%45.8%43.5%43.4%SQ 792 Support319611415936.2%60.4%85.5%54.3%


About the Poll, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll and commissioned by the Oklahoman.

The scientific study was conducted from October 18-20, 2016 with 530 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus a online panel from Research Now. The sample was weighted by age, political party, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a general election. The weighting was conducted using a 'layered technique.'

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 4.26 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll's Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here. A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

Bill Shapard
About the Author

Bill Shapard

Bill is the founder of and ShapardResearch, a full service market research firm based in Oklahoma City. Bill began his career in polling after working on a major campaign in Oklahoma from 1996 until founding SoonerPoll in 2004.