July 31, 2019
Bill Shapard

Medicaid expansion supported by majority of Oklahoma likely voters

As supporters are cleared to begin collecting signatures to put Medicaid expansion on an upcoming ballot, the most recent SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll shows a majority of likely voting Oklahomans support it.

Support was extremely high with Democrats, where 57.9 percent strongly supported it and another 17.3 percent somewhat supported it, yielding a combined 75.2 percent in support. Contrast this with Republican support, 19.0 strongly supported Medicaid's expansion in the state and another 20.8 percent somewhat supported it. While a plurality of Republicans opposed it with 41.6 percent, the level of support among Republicans was close with 39.8 percent.

While Republicans were split on the matter, Independents also supported Medicaid expansion by a large margin with 53.8 percent strongly supporting it and another 11.2 percent somewhat supporting it.

[QUESTION] Do you SUPPORT or OPPOSE the expansion of Medicaid in the state of Oklahoma?

1. Strongly support 37.8%
2. Somewhat support 18.5
3. No opinion/Don't know/Refused [DNR] 16.0
4. Somewhat oppose 10.5
5. Strongly oppose 17.2

As expected, self-identified liberal voters were heavily supportive with 89.9 percent strongly in support and another 5.8 percent were in somewhat support.

Self-identified conservatives were more opposed than in support of the measure. Forty-six percent opposed it and 32.6 percent supported it. Interestingly, one-in-five conservatives were undecided on the issue, the largest amount among any of the ideological subsets. Moderates supported it 78.6 percent to only 10.9 percent that opposed it.

It should be noted as well that, among those who had a favorable opinion of Governor Stitt, 43.6 percent supported Medicaid expansion in the state; only 37.7 percent opposed it.

No significant differences among subsets in age, education, race or household income were observed.

While a slim majority of men supported Medicaid expansion in the state at 51.9 percent, women were nearly 15 points more likely to support it.

Lastly, the poll also asked the same question of support or oppose Medicaid expansion while providing the poll respondent with additional information, noting the incomes of those that would qualify for Medicaid and the cost to the state government for its portion of the overall cost.

The question produced little difference in overall result compared to the first question outlined above. Combined support for Medicaid expansion was 55.7 percent, compared to 56.3 percent for the initial question. Those undecided did drop when more information was provided, from 16 percent to 9.6 percent.  Those opposed rose from 27.7 percent to 34.8 percent.

About the Poll, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, asked these questions of Oklahoma likely voters as part of the SoonerPoll Quarterly Poll.

The scientific study was conducted from July 17-27, 2019 with 373 likely Oklahoma voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of both landline telephone and cell phones, plus SoonerPoll's proprietary online panel. The sample was weighted by age, political party and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population for a primary election. The weighting was conducted using a 'layered technique.'

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative and attending religious services once or more per week. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 5.07 percent.

This poll not only conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls but exceeds the standard disclosure with a Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report. A complete description of the methodology can be found here.

The poll's Call Disposition and Rate Calculation Report can be viewed here.  A beta version of the Weighting Table Report can be viewed here.

Bill Shapard
About the Author

Bill Shapard

Bill is the founder of and ShapardResearch, a full service market research firm based in Oklahoma City. Bill began his career in polling after working on major campaigns for both Republicans and Democrats in Oklahoma from 1996 until founding SoonerPoll in 2004.