July 28, 2018
Bill Shapard

Current State Superintendent Joy Hofmeister has commanding lead in Republican run-off poll

Current State Superintendent Joy Hofmeister leads former Secretary of Education Linda Murphy by nearly 13 points in the Republican run-off election slated for August 28th, according to the most recent News9/Newson6 poll.

The winner will face Peggs, OK School Superintendent John Cox in the general election in November. Cox, a Democrat, ran unopposed.

Hofmeister received the highest level of support of any candidate tested in the run-off poll.

[box][QUESTION] If the Republican primary run-off for Superintendent of Public Instruction was today and you were standing in the voting booth right now, for whom would you vote? [READ IN ROTATED ORDER]

1. Joy Hofmeister42.9%2. Linda Murphy30.13. Undecided/not sure [DNR]27.0


Hofmeister led 42.3 percent to 31.8 percent among self-identified conservatives, who make up 78 percent of the Republican electorate. Hofmeister's lead among moderates was even greater at 12 points.

Hofmeister also led in the Tulsa metro area by nearly 10 points, 42.3 percent to 32.8 percent for Murphy, and by an even greater margin in the Oklahoma City metro area, 49.7 percent to 33.9 percent.

Rural Republican voters were the most undecided in the race at 34.6 percent, but Hofmeister led among these voters as well, 39.2 percent to 26 percent for Murphy.

Interestingly, Hofmeister trailed Murphy among Republican voters under the age of 34, but had a commanding lead among Republican voters over the age of 65. Those over the age of 65 make up slightly more than one-in-three Republican voters, the largest of any of the age groups.

Hofmeister also led among the coveted high church goers and evangelical voters. Those who attend church several times a week favored Hofmeister by 20 points, and 9 points among weekly attendees. Those that attend church week or more make up nearly 63 percent of the Republican electorate.

About the Poll, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, conducted the poll of Oklahoma likely voters, which was commissioned by News9 and Newson6.

The scientific study was conducted July 18-20, 2018 with 483 likely Republican voters selected at random statewide from a 5-frame of SoonerPoll's own online panel, Research Now's voter panel, cell phones and landline telephones. For cell phone and landline telephones, voters are selected at random from SoonerPoll's voter database and matched with cell and landline phone numbers. Cell phone participants are collected using live interviewers and landline participants are collected using both live interviewer and IVR (Interactive Voice Response) technology. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population.

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ±4.46 percent.

Bill Shapard
About the Author

Bill Shapard

Bill is the founder of and ShapardResearch, a full service market research firm based in Oklahoma City. Bill began his career in polling after working on a major campaign in Oklahoma from 1996 until founding SoonerPoll in 2004.