July 28, 2018
Bill Shapard

Cathy Costello with comfortable lead in Labor Commissioner run-off

On August 28th, Republicans will be deciding seven of eight statewide office races that were all pushed to a run-off when none of the candidates received more than 50 percent of the vote. One of them is the labor commissioner race which features the widow of a former commissioner and champion of mental health reforms, Cathy Costello, and Leslie Osborn, a house member from Mustang who was the former chairman of the House Appropriations and Budget Committee.

Costello led with 31.8 percent of the vote with a nearly 10-point lead over Osborn who had 22.1 percent of the vote. Those undecided, however, were 46.1 percent.

[box][QUESTION] If the Republican primary run-off for Comissioner of Labor was today and you were standing in the voting booth right now, for whom would you vote? [READ IN ROTATED ORDER]

1. Cathy Costello31.8%2. Leslie Osborn22.13. Undecided/not sure [DNR]46.1


Costello led among self-identified conservatives by 11 points and 10 points among moderates. Conservatives make up 79 percent of the run-off electorate and moderates another 15 points.

Costello also led among Tulsa and Oklahoma City, as well those living in the more rural parts of the state. Costello, who is from Edmond, led in the Tulsa metro area nearly 16 points with 45.1 percent still undecided. In the Oklahoma City metro area, which includes Osborn's home of Mustang, Costello led by a more narrow 3-point margin with 36.6 percent undecided.

In the rural parts of the state, Costello led Osborn by nearly 10 points as well, although rural Republican voters were the most undecided at 52.4 percent.

Costello also led among high church goers and those who identified both as evangelicals and non-evangelical voters. Those who attend church weekly or more are nearly 63 percent of the Republican electorate. Evangelicals are 69 percent of the Republican electorate.

About the Poll, Oklahoma’s public opinion pollster, conducted the poll of Oklahoma likely voters, which was commissioned by News9 and Newson6.

The scientific study was conducted July 18-20, 2018 with 483 likely Republican voters selected at random statewide from a 5-frame of SoonerPoll's own online panel, Research Now's voter panel, cell phones and landline telephones. For cell phone and landline telephones, voters are selected at random from SoonerPoll's voter database and matched with cell and landline phone numbers. Cell phone participants are collected using live interviewers and landline participants are collected using both live interviewer and IVR (Interactive Voice Response) technology. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population.

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ±4.46 percent.

Bill Shapard
About the Author

Bill Shapard

Bill is the founder of and ShapardResearch, a full service market research firm based in Oklahoma City. Bill began his career in polling after working on a major campaign in Oklahoma from 1996 until founding SoonerPoll in 2004.